Trump’s tax hike proposal is ‘déjà vu’ of George H. W. Bush’s ‘read my lips’ moment, experts say

Americans lambasted President George H. W. Bush for infamously vowing on stage at the 1988 Republican National Convention not to raise taxes on Americans, then supporting a tax hike as president two years later. 

History could repeat itself as President Donald Trump this week signaled his support for congressional Republicans raising taxes to accomplish the ambitious goals of his “big, beautiful bill,” according to experts.

“My opponent won’t rule out raising taxes, but I will. And the Congress will push me to raise taxes, and I’ll say no. And they’ll push and I’ll say no. And they’ll push again, and I’ll say to them: ‘Read my lips: no new taxes,’” then-Vice President Bush vowed at the 1988 convention, before raising taxes two years later with the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990. 

While acknowledging the political backlash his fellow Republican faced, Trump signaled in a Truth Social post on Friday his own willingness to raise taxes on Americans, following reports confirmed by Fox News Digital that the president is considering raising the tax rate on individuals making $2.5 million or more by 2.6%, from 37% to 39.6%.

TRUMP CONSIDERS TAX HIKE ON AMERICANS MAKING $2.5 MILLION OR MORE PER YEAR

Political experts compared President Donald Trump, right, to President George H. W. Bush after Trump signaled his support for a small tax hike.  (Pool/Getty Images)

“The problem with even a ‘TINY’ tax increase for the RICH, which I and all others would graciously accept in order to help the lower and middle income workers, is that the Radical Left Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, ‘Read my lips,’ the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the Election. NO, Ross Perot cost him the Election! In any event, Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” Trump said. 

WHITE HOUSE QUIETLY FLOATS MILLIONAIRE TAX HIKE PROPOSAL IN CONGRESS AS GOP LEADERS SIGNAL OPPOSITION

Ross Perot, the late billionaire Texas businessman and philanthropist, ran an independent campaign as a third-party candidate in the 1992 presidential election, winning an historic 19% of the popular vote.

As Trump suggested, the political fallout of raising taxes contributed to Bush losing re-election to President Bill Clinton in 1992. Democrats slammed Bush in campaign ads for walking back his word as conservative Republicans criticized the president for being out of step with the party’s traditional tax policies. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich led Republican criticism of Bush’s tax hike proposal, and Gingrich has urged Trump to stand down on raising taxes since rumors the administration was floating a small tax hike first swirled. 

TRUMP’S FIRST VICE PRESIDENT URGES HIS OLD BOSS AGAINST RAISING TAXES ON WEALTHY AMERICANS

Gingrich recently told Larry Kudlow on FOX Business that Trump is a Ronald Reagan Republican, not a Bush Republican, and raising taxes would be an “act of destruction.”

“It would absolutely shatter his coalition,” Gingrich said. “It would mean the entire conservative movement would rise in rebellion, and it would mean every small business in the country would start recalculating who they are going to lay off, if they are even going to stay in business. It would make no sense at all.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is leading ongoing budget negotiations for Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Negotiations are ongoing among House Republicans to finalize Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which is expected to include an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and fulfill campaign promises, including no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security. 

Republican politicians and pundits have joined Gingrich’s critique of Trump’s potential tax hike, arguing Trump is repeating the same mistakes as Bush. 

“[House] Speaker [Mike] Johnson and Republican members of Congress must have experienced collective déjà vu when President Trump urged Congress to raise taxes,” New England College President Wayne Lesperance, a veteran political scientist and political historian, told Fox News Digital.           

“Harkening back to the infamous ‘Read my lips’ pledge made by George H. W. Bush at the 1988 GOP Convention, today’s Republicans must be nervous at the president’s change on what is a sacrosanct issue for the party — tax cuts. Interestingly, George H. W. Bush’s decision to break his pledge was surrounded by notably different circumstances,” Lesperance added. 

In this Feb. 11, 1991, file photo, President George H. W. Bush talks to reporters in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., after meeting with top military advisors to discuss the Persian Gulf War.  (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds, File)

But Lesperance reminded Republicans, who currently control the House and Senate, that Democrats could gain an edge in the 2026 midterms if tax hikes prove to be as unpopular among Republicans as they were in 1992. 

“Facing a Democratically controlled Congress, Bush reneged on his pledge as a compromise to reduce the deficit and pass the 1990 budget agreement. Bush’s decision to compromise on taxes is widely credited with costing him his bid for re-election. As Speaker Johnson and Republican members of Congress look ahead to midterm elections, there must be collective worry that President Trump’s shifting position on taxes will cost them at the polls,” Lesperance said. 

Longtime Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns, said the move by Bush “was probably the single most detrimental thing to his re-election.”

Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on Oct. 27, 2024. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

Carney, who served in the elder Bush’s White House and worked on his presidential campaigns, told Fox News “the deal he cut was excellent. He cut spending, balanced out the taxes.”

But Carney emphasized “all that’s inside baseball and the reality is it was a great opportunity for people from the right and the left to make hay out of it, and it was absolutely hurtful.”

However, fiscal conservatives remain optimistic that Trump won’t raise taxes, despite the president softening to the idea on social media on Friday morning. 

“President Trump campaigned on not raising taxes, and we are confident that’s exactly what he’ll do,” Club for Growth President David McIntosh told Fox News Digital. 

When reached for comment about the Bush comparison, the White House pointed to press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s comments during the White House briefing on Friday. 

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“The president wants tax cuts, the largest tax cuts in history,” Leavitt said. “He wants to extend his historic tax cuts from 2017, and he wants to see all the other tax priorities,” including no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security. 

“The president has said he himself personally would not mind paying a little bit more to help the poor and the middle class and the working class in this country. I think, frankly, that’s a very honorable position. But again, these negotiations are ongoing on Capitol Hill, and the president will weigh in when he feels necessary,” she added. 

Fox News Digital’s Elizabeth Elkind contributed to this report.