Top political handicapper reveals prediction for ‘volatile’ 2026 battle for House majority

The fight for control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections will be fought on a limited battlefield, a leading nonpartisan political handicapper predicts.

The Cook Political Report, as it unveiled its first rankings for the next midterm elections on Thursday, listed 10 Democrat-held seats and eight Republican-controlled seats as toss-ups. 

The GOP, when at full strength, will hold a razor-thin 220-215 majority in the House, which means the Democrats only need a three-seat gain in 2026 to win back the chamber for the first time in four years.

“Another Knife Fight for the Majority” is the headline the Cook Report used to describe the House showdown ahead.

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And Cook Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter spotlighted in a social media post that a “Small playing field + volatile political climate = epic battle for House control.”

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The 10 House Democrats whose re-elections are listed as toss-ups are: Reps. Adam Gray of California (CA-13); Derek Tran of California (CA-45); Jared Golden of Maine (ME-02); Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico (NM-02); Laura Gillen of New York (NY-04); Don Davis of North Carolina (NC-01); Marcy Kaptur of Ohio (OH-09); Emilia Sykes of Ohio (OH-13); Vicente Gonzalez of Texas (TX-34); and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington State (WA-03).

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine speaks at a news conference at the State House in Augusta, Maine, on Nov. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

The eight Republicans spotlighted by the Cook Report as vulnerable are: Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona (AZ-01); Juan Ciscomani of Arizona (AZ-06); Gabe Evans of Colorado (CO-08); Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa (IA-01); Tom Barrett of Michigan (MI-07); Don Bacon of Nebraska (NE-02); Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania (PA-07); and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania (PA-10).

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Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa speaks with local farmers on the set of the “Barn Talk” podcast on the Whisler family farm near Washington, Iowa, on Nov. 1, 2024. (Nick Rohlman/The Gazette via AP)

President Donald Trump recaptured the White House, the Republicans flipped control of the Senate, and the GOP held on to its fragile House majority in November’s elections.

That means Republicans will not only defend a razor-thin majority – when all 435 House seats are once again up for grabs in 2026 – but are also facing plenty of history, as the party in power traditionally faces electoral headwinds in the midterms.

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But the Cook Report’s Erin Covedy and Matthew Klein noted that “though their majority is dangerously thin, in some ways, Republicans are starting out in a stronger position than they were in 2018. Trump’s latest victory was broad; he clawed back ground in suburbs that had lurched to the left since 2016 and made massive inroads in urban areas.”

They added that “almost all of the most competitive House districts moved to the right between 2020 and 2024 (Washington’s 3rd District was the lone exception).”

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., is seen on Dec. 12, 2024. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella touted in a statement that “the math is in our favor, and it’s clear House Republicans are on offense for 2026.”

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He also asserted that “House Democrats are in shambles — they don’t have a clear message and they’re incapable of selling voters on their failed agenda. We will work tirelessly to hold the Democrat Party accountable and grow our Republican majority.”

Courtney Rice, communications director for the rival Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized that “voters will hold House Republicans accountable for failing to lower costs while fostering a culture of corruption that benefits their billionaire backers.”

“The political environment is in Democrats’ favor heading into 2026 — and with stellar candidates who are focused on delivering for their districts, House Democrats are poised to take back the majority in 2026,” Rice predicted.