The unintended consequences of Hamas’s war on Israel for the US and global security

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JERUSALEM — Deceased Hamas terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar envisioned that his invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 would prompt his allies Hezbollah and all the Iran-backed proxies to launch a full-scale war against America’s key Middle East ally, Israel.

The long-stated goal of the troika of terrorist regimes — Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah — was the end of the Jewish state.

What Sinwar dreamed about on October 7, however, has turned into a series of devastating unintended consequences for Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the regime’s “Axis of Resistance.”

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People move past a large banner featuring portraits of slain leaders from Iran-aligned armed groups, including Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, in central Tehran, Iran, on May 1, 2025. (Photo by MOHAMMADALI NAJIB/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s core nuclear facilities on Saturday was perhaps the most telling example of Sinwar’s plan being turned upside down. 

A leading Israeli security expert from the Israel Alma Research and Education Center, Sarit Zehavi, told Fox News Digital, “In general, if you talk about the October 7 effect, this is truly a huge change in the Middle East.” 

The running list of setbacks for the enemies of America and Israel starts with the degradation of Hamas in 2024.

Hamas’ collapse in the Gaza Strip

Israel executed a James Bond-style operation on July 31, 2024, resulting in the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, the Palestinian terrorist who oversaw the Hamas Political Bureau. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is currently hiding in a bunker, pledged retaliation. 

Banners with the photograph of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who was killed in the Israeli attack, are hung on the streets in Tehran, Iran, on Oct. 19, 2024. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

In October 2024, Israel killed Hamas’ Gaza-based leader Sinwar. Just last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his country’s forces had eliminated Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, a key terrorist responsible for the construction of the massive terror tunnel system on Israel’s south border.

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Israel defangs Hezbollah

The Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF’s) targeted killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September 2024 was part and parcel of the Jewish state’s successful campaign to decapitate the leadership of the terrorist group in Beirut.

Just days before Nasrallah’s demise, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, activated a hack attack that caused explosions of handheld pagers carried by thousands of members of Hezbollah.

An IDF profile picture showing Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah, who the IDF confirmed was killed in a strike on Friday. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

In December, Fox News Digital exclusively reported on Hezbollah’s secret plan to invade Israel.

Israel’s decimation of a significant part of Hezbollah seems to have generated deterrence. Hezbollah has not entered the current full-blown war between Israel and Iran’s regime. Tehran expected Hezbollah’s intervention in a war with the Jewish state.

Hezbollah fighters carry the coffins of four fallen comrades who were killed Tuesday after their handheld pagers exploded, in the southern suburb of Beirut on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP/Bilal Hussein)

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This video grab shows a walkie-talkie that exploded inside a house in Baalbek, east Lebanon, on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo)

Zehavi said while Sinwar perhaps made a tactical decision to invade, she cautioned about giving too much credit to Sinwar. 

She noted Mohammed Said Izadil, who Israel reportedly eliminated on Saturday and who oversaw the Palestinian affairs branch in the Quds Force, the branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, was “deeply involved” in the planning of the invasion on October 7.  Zehavi noted that documents found by the IDF in Gaza revealed that Izadil knew in advance about Hamas’ intent to invade Israel on October 7.

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Zehavi, who is an IDF lieutenant colonel (Res.), said, “It is too soon to tell where those changes will lead us” in the Middle East.  

The first effect of October 7, she said about the enemies of Israel and the U.S. in the Middle East, is, “Israel can no longer tolerate monsters who threaten its very existence. We are eliminating those monsters one after the other, with the support of the United States, which is also very important.” She warned, however, that the open question is, will the terrorist regimes and organizations recover?”

Benjamin Weinthal reports on Israel, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Europe. You can follow Benjamin on Twitter @BenWeinthal, and email him at benjamin.weinthal@fox.com