Pennsylvania Senate race labeled ‘toss up’ in last-minute shift by top handicapper

A top political handicapper shifted its rating on Monday in the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race, signaling dwindling chances for Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s re-election. 

Unveiling two ratings changes roughly two weeks from Election Day, the Cook Political Report indicated heightened competition in both Pennsylvania and Nebraska, where an independent candidate is threatening to unseat an incumbent Republican. 

In Pennsylvania, the race between incumbent Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is now considered a “Toss Up,” according to the handicapper. The battle was previously rated “Lean Democrat.”

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Bob Casey, left, and Dave McCormick (AP | Reuters)

Cook cited McCormick “shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state,” as part of its justification. It also noted that while Casey has a several point advantage over his opponent in public polls, the race is reportedly within the margin of error in both Democratic and Republican internal surveys. 

Casey’s race is now in the same category as Senate races in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. 

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Casey is only leading McCormick by single digits. (Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The ratings change comes as the presidential election between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is practically tied in the battleground state. With split-ticket voting becoming increasingly rare, it’s very likely that whichever party wins the White House will also win the Senate race. 

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McCormick is endorsed by Trump. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

Casey defeated McCormick among likely voters 48% to 44% in a recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll. The survey of 857 Pennsylvania voters was conducted between Oct. 7 and 10. The margin of error was +/- 3.8 percentage points. 

Republicans also took a hit in the ratings shifts, with Sen. Deb Fischer’s race in Nebraska moved again to demonstrate a quickly developing tight race. The match-up shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” 

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Osborn, left, is challenging Fischer’s  re-election bid, running as an independent. (Reuters)

Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a union leader and mechanic, has appeared to take Fischer’s re-election campaign by surprise with his popularity just weeks from the election. No Democrat candidate was nominated in the race. 

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Despite the notable challenge, “we still think the heavy red hue of the state wins out, GOP attacks on Democratic efforts to covertly boost Osborn break through and that Fischer makes it across the finish line,” Cook wrote. 

Fischer’s re-election bid is now in the same category as Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. 

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