New York Republican in toss-up district gains momentum in key race to determine House control

An incumbent Republican congressman from New York now holds a surprising lead over his progressive opponent, according to a new poll. 

The poll, which was conducted by PIX11, The Hill and Emerson College, found that Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., holds a 49%-44% lead over former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones. The two are running in New York’s 17th congressional district, and the poll comes a week before the Nov. 5 election.

The survey, which was published on Tuesday, was conducted Oct. 24 through Oct. 26 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. According to Emerson College, the data was collected via cell phone surveys.

Lawler gained a four-point increase in support, based on an earlier poll conducted by Emerson College. The other survey, conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 3, found that Lawler had 45% of voters’ support and put Jones at 44%.

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Rep. Mike Lawler’s race against former Rep. Mondaire Jones is expected to be one of the closest in the country. (Getty Images)

The poll also found that 52% of voters have a favorable view of Lawler, compared to 44% of voters having a favorable view of Jones.

The district still leans blue in presidential election polls, and the survey found that half of voters support President Kamala Harris and 47% support former President Donald Trump.

“The top issue for voters in the 17th district is the economy, at 30%, followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (15%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%),” the findings read.

“Half (50%) of voters in the 17th district say they are worse off financially today than a year ago, while 32% say they are doing about the same, and 18% are better off.”

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UNITED STATES – JUNE 4: Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., talks with reporters after a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, June 4, 2024.  (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that the recent findings highlight a significant gender divide between voters.

“There is a stark gender divide in the 17th district, with men breaking for Lawler by 27 points, and women breaking by 16 for Jones, while men are more divided in the 18th district: 47% support Esposito and 46% support Ryan,” Kimball explained. “Women break for Ryan by 20 points.”

Earlier this month, Lawler was accused of dressing in blackface when photos of him dressed as Michael Jackson in October 2006 emerged. Lawler, a student at the time, said that his costume was intended to be complimentary and apologized for causing offense.

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones is now polling lower than his opponent. (Getty Images)

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Fox News Digital reached out to the Lawler and Jones campaigns for comments.