Key House projection spells trouble for two Republican lawmakers

Two House Republican lawmakers are in political trouble with Election Day just four days away, according to a new analysis.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report issued a ratings update late Friday morning projecting races for Reps. Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., to “lean Democrat.”

They were both previously classified as “toss-up” races, meaning it was anyone’s game ahead of Nov. 5.

Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of the House of Representatives, which is currently held by the GOP with a slim four-vote margin.

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Reps. Don Bacon, left, and Anthony D’Esposito got bad news in the most recent Cook Political Report race update. (Getty Images)

Bacon and D’Esposito were widely considered two of the most vulnerable Republicans on the congressional map. They’re two of 16 House GOP lawmakers in seats that President Biden won in the 2020 race.

Both also won their seats by defeating Democrats – Bacon winning against a Democratic incumbent in 2016 and D’Esposito scoring an open seat previously held by a liberal in 2022.

D’Esposito’s district sits on the New York City suburb of Long Island. His victory was part of a wider backlash against the city’s progressive crime policies that was credited with delivering Republicans the House majority that year.

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Both races are in seats President Biden won in 2020. (Getty Images)

But with the presidential race at stake this time, Democrats have worked to tie D’Esposito to former President Donald Trump, who D’Esposito endorsed for re-election but is still a divisive figure among suburban swing voters.

House Democrats and aligned groups have also poured significant resources into Laura Gillen, who D’Esposito defeated in 2022.

Democrats also see opportunity in Bacon’s Omaha-anchored district, considered by Cook to be the least Republican of ruby-red Nebraska’s congressional seats.

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Laura Gillen, Democratic candidate for New York’s 4th Congressional District (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general, has won every re-election battle since his 2016 race by less than 3%. 

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But he’s facing what could be his toughest race yet in Nebraska state legislator Tony Vargas – to whom House Democrats have also given enormous time, money and resources.

Fox News Digital reached out to both GOP campaigns for comment.

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