Iowa poll shows Democrats in position to flip 2 GOP House seats

Democrats are in a position to possibly flip two of Iowa’s four House seats, according to a new poll. 

The state’s four House seats are currently controlled by Republicans. 

Democrats have the upper hand in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, while Republicans remain ahead among voters in the 2nd and 4th Districts, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. 

In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of respondents said they preferred the Democratic candidate, while 37% said they would vote or have already voted for the Republican. 

Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, therefore, has a 16-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in their 2022 rematch contest. 

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Miller-Meeks secured victory over Bohannan by nearly 7 percentage points in 2022. 

“This race was always going to be competitive,” Miller-Meeks campaign spokesman Tyler Menzler said in a statement. “In 2020, Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes and in 2022, she won by 7 points.” 

“Just like yesterday, the final Selzer poll greatly defies the reality on the ground,” Menzler said. “And not even the Democrats are buying it. On Tuesday, Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win the only poll that matters and be re-elected.”

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, speaks during a House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs subcommittee hearing on Capitol Hill on Feb. 5, 2024.  (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 48% of voters in the third congressional district prefer the Democratic candidate, while 41% said they voted or will vote for the Republican. Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam has a 7-point lead ahead of Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn. 

“We are confident Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win because they have delivered strong results for their communities,” National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Mike Marinella told Fox News Digital. “This poll is a clear outlier, as voters are well aware that career political activist Lanon Baccam and radical liberal Christina Bohannan are too out of touch for Iowa.” 

Rep. Zach Nunn, R- Iowa, speaks to members of the press as he exits a Republican Caucus meeting in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023.  (Anna Rose Layden/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

In the 2nd Congressional District, 45% of respondents prefer the Republican, while 42% prefer the Democrat. Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has a three-point lead over Democrat Sarah Corkery. 

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Republican incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra wields a 16-point lead over Democratic challenger Ryan Melton. The poll found 53% of voters support the Republican in the 4th Congressional District, while 37% of voters support the Democratic candidate. 

Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, speaks on “Putting American families first” at the Greenbrier Hotel on March 14, 2024, in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia.  (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The polling represents the first time since September 2020 that Democrats have the advantage statewide on the congressional ballot. In the last poll in September, Republicans were favored statewide, 52% to 44%. Since then, Iowa voters have shifted toward Democrats. The Democrat in the 1st congressional district had a 3-point lead in September, while the Republicans had the advantage in the three other races then. 

Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, questions Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young on March 29, 2022, in Washington, D.C.  (Rod Lamkey – Pool/Getty Images)

The new poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31 and sampled 808 likely Iowa voters. That included people who had voted already or who told pollsters they would definitely vote. 

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Its margin of error statewide was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and for congressional districts, was a maximum of plus or minus 7.2 percentage points.