Historian with streak of accurate election forecasts since 1984 falls short after 2024 Trump victory

Historian Allan Lichtman, who predicted nearly every election since 1984, was proved to have the wrong projection this cycle after President-elect Trump sailed to victory on Election Day.  

The Fox News Decision Desk projected Trump would win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday, after Wisconsin’s call for the former president officially brought him above the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to secure a win.

Lichtman, an election forecaster who had previously correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about presidential elections. He predicted, after the Democratic National Convention, that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the White House this cycle – but election night results show his prediction was wrong.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on election night. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point.

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History professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2008. (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images)

The “keys” are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

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According to Lichtman’s prediction, Harris held nine of the 13 keys before Election Day. These included no primary contest, no third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, foreign/military success, and no challenger charisma.

Trump, however, defeated Harris when he secured 277 electoral votes – and counting.

Celebrating on election night are, from left, Barron Trump, President-elect Trump, former first lady Melania Trump, Usha Chilukuri Vance, Sen. JD Vance and Ivanka Trump, in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

“The keys show that Kamala Harris is a predicted winner,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital ahead of the election.

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After Trump was projected to be the 47th president, Lichtman said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that he was “assessing last night’s results.”

In a statement shared with Fox News Digital, Lichtman said he will soon be addressing the results.