Competitive Virginia House race tied as Republican incumbent battles challenger

A red-leaning House race in Virginia has become more competitive, as the Republican incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans’ lead ahead of Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal narrowed to a statistically insignificant 1 point, according to a new poll. 

Kiggans received 46% support among registered likely voters in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, while Smasal garnered 45%, according to a new poll by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University. 

The Republican’s lead has tightened since the same poll in mid-September when Kiggans was 5 points ahead of Smasal. The margins of error for both polls were 3.9 percentage points. 

The district centered around Virginia Beach that includes Chesapeake, Suffolk, Isle of Wight and Virginia’s eastern shore is considered one of the most competitive in the state. Both Republicans and Democrats have cited it as among those critical to securing control of the House for the next two years. 

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Home to the largest naval base in the country, the district’s voting population is heavily active duty and retired miliary, and both candidates are veterans. Of likely voters, 46% trusted Kiggans more to handle military and veteran’s issues, compared to 42% who trusted Smasal more, according to the poll. 

Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Virginia, speaks to reporters during a news conference after the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) at the U.S. Capitol Building on July 14, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The poll found Smasal is trusted more, 49% to 35%, to handle “reproductive rights.” 

The district has flipped between red and blue twice already over the past six years. 

Fox News Power Rankings has the district leaning red this election cycle.  

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The poll showed Vice President Harris two points ahead of former President Trump among likely voters in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. The lean of the district shifted more to the right after it was redrawn following the 2020 census, but President Biden still won it by two points. 

Republican congressional nominee, state Sen. Jen Kiggans, celebrates her win during an election night event on Nov. 8, 2022, in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Kiggans defeated incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria.  (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

“If this margin holds, I think we’ll see something similar for Harris” statewide, Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director for the Wason Center, told the Washington Post. “Fundamentally, it’s going to be about how well Harris performs in the state,” she said. “If she does really well, Cotter Smasal has a chance … if we’re seeing really high Democratic turnout and suppressed Republican turnout.”

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Though, Harris’ lead has fallen since September, when the same poll had her ahead by 11 points.

In 2021, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin secured the district by 11 points. Kiggans bested Democratic incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria by 3 points. The new poll showed incumbent Democrat Sen. Tim Kaine seven points ahead of Republican challenger Hung Cao among likely voters in Virginia’s 2nd district.