2 swing districts in New York split as GOP incumbents fight to hold seats

Two swing districts in New York appear to be split, as GOP first-term incumbents fight to hold their House seats. 

Republican Rep. Nick LaLota holds a three-point lead over Democrat challenger, former CNN anchor John Avlon, in New York’s 1st Congressional District, which includes most of Suffolk County on eastern Long Island. LaLota has 47% support, while Avlon has 44%, according to a new Newsday/Siena College poll. 

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, the first-term Republican representing New York’s 4th Congressional District encompassing central and southern Nassau County on Long Island, is behind by 12 percentage points. The poll found 53% of likely voters in the district support Democrat challenger, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, while 41% support D’Esposito, who previously served on Hempstead Town Council. 

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Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., arrives for a meeting of Republicans on Capitol Hill on Oct. 24, 2023. D’Esposito is the GOP candidate in New York’s District 4. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Their race is a rematch from 2022, when D’Esposito edged a slim victory over Gillen by four points. 

The majority of voters in the 1st Congressional District, which includes the Hamptons and rural farmland, supported former President Donald Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon has faced questions over the extent of his residency in the district. The race moved from leaning Republican to likely Republican, according to the Fox News Power Ranking.

Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., speaks during a news conference, July 14, 2023 on Capitol Hill in Washington. LaLota is the Republican candidate in New York’s 1st District. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

According to the Newsday/Siena College poll, Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of Trump by one percentage point in LaLota’s district. In D’Esposito’s district, the poll shows Harris ahead of Trump, 54-42%. 

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Laura Gillen, Democratic candidate for New York’s 4th Congressional District, attends a campaign rally with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., in Hempstead, New York, on Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat who has represented New York since 2009, is leading in both districts. The poll also showed that 55% of likely voters in New York’s 1st District and 49% of likely voters in New York’s 4th District view Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul as unfavorable. Hochul is not up for re-election until 2026. 

John Avlon attends The Future Of Democracy with Garry Kasparov and John Avlon at the 92NY, New York on May 14, 2023 in New York City. (Jason Mendez/Getty Images)

Eleven districts within a 90-mile drive of Manhattan are expected to be among the country’s most closely contested House races on Election Day and could decide which party controls the U.S. House. 

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The nearly contiguous circle starts in the Long Island suburbs, cuts through Connecticut and New York’s Hudson River Valley, then carves through eastern Pennsylvania before curling back into New Jersey. Trump struggled in the area outside of New York City in 2020, but Republicans picked up wins there in the 2022 midterm elections.

Fox News’ Remy Numa and The Associated Press contributed to this report.