Italy boss Roberto Mancini can complete perfect Euros start in Rome with win against Wales (Image: Alberto Lingria/POOL/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)
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Trust Italy to put it all in against Wales in Rome.
The dark shadow of jiggery-pokery is never far away in the last group matches of a European Championship.
Who can forget the ‘Scandi Stitch-up’ at Euro 2004, when a last-gasp equaliser in a convenient 2-2 did for the Italians?
Or the ‘Charleroi Balls-up’ in 2000, when Romania did the dirty against England by being quite good and scoring more goals?
Italy and Wales (5pm, ITV) are basically playing for a knockouts roadmap.
The Group A winner is set for Ukraine or Austria, then Belgium. Runner-up is looking at Russia or Finland, then Holland.
You could argue that second place is the plum – but that comes with a quarter-final in Baku, where it’s so hot you can coddle an egg in your armpit, and many do.
Group A’s winners would head to London then Munich, where the weather is unremarkable, and you can get a more conventional fry-up.
The form book simply says Wales ain’t bringing home the bacon today.
Roberto Mancini has the Azzurri feeling peckish. Take Italy ‘win to nil’ at 11/10.
If Giovanni Di Lorenzo starts for Italy, Welsh hare Daniel James will rattle him – take the Italian to receive a card at 13/2.
It’s win or bust for the Swiss and the Turks (5pm, ITV) in Group A – though Turkey look stuffed whatever happens. A masterclass from Gareth Bale has done for them.
The Turkish defence was shocking. It would have been four or five minimum if Ian Rush had been up front, and he’s 60 in October.
Have the Swiss got a Rushie? No, but they do have Xherdan Shaqiri and he can thrive in the forecast ding-dong game.
Take ‘OVER 2.5 total goals AND both teams score’ at 21/20.
Belgium don’t need to beat Finland (tomorrow 8pm, BBC) and could well tread lightly against a dug-in defence. They’re shaky bankers at 1/3.
Take ‘Belgium clean sheet’ at 8/13 instead, in a double with NO ‘both teams score’ when Russia go to Denmark (tomorrow 8pm, BBC).
Russia did almost nothing with home advantage – Yussuf Poulsen and the Danes have little to fear. It pays just shy of 2/1.
All odds William Hill.