The recent Covid spike is already beginning to flatten, latest data shows, as experts said Britain is experiencing a “mini wave” which is likely to peak within two weeks.
Latest data from the King’s College ZOE symptom tracker app, which monitors community prevalence, has found cases in unvaccinated people rose by just 28 per cent up to June 12, compared to 114 per cent the previous week.
In fully and partly vaccinated groups, the increase in infections has fallen from 89 per cent to 53 per cent.
The ZOE app estimates there are now 12,830 new daily symptomatic cases of coronavirus in unvaccinated people, a rise from 9,991 last week. Last week the jump went from 4,662 to 9,991, an increase of 5,329 cases compared to 2,839 this week.
In vaccinated populations, the rise in case numbers is relatively flat, increasing to 2,930 from 1,917 this week, an rise of 1,013 compared to 903 the previous week.
Covid infections in UK by vaccine status (Zoe Covid Study/Kings)
Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE Covid study app and professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s, said it looked as if cases would peak within a fortnight.
“The good news is that this isn’t going up as fast as it was,” he said. “This has been a much better week than it was last week. I think we can start to see an end to this little mini wave in the young and the extra time we’ve got should be able to squash this from getting out of control.
“Rates in the North West of the country and Scotland are still going up but you can definitely see signs they are starting to level off. Rates in London look like they are starting to slow down.
“If we look at the way past waves have come and gone I would be predicting that this should be peaking around 10 to 14 days time and then start to fall, so by four weeks we are at a much lower level than we are now, and much more manageable.
“I think this suggests that this should be the end of this summer wave, it doesn’t mean there won’t be other waves outbreaks.”
Covid infections in UK (Zoe Covid Study/Kings)
Latest data continues to show a wide discrepancy between people who have been fully vaccinated and those who have had one shot or none at all.
Prof Spector said the vaccination impact could be seen in Wales where cases appear to have stopped rising. The country has already fully vaccinated 55 per cent of adults while 88 per cent have had at least one jab – around 10 per cent higher coverage than the rest of Britain.
“Let’s look at the figures for Wales because they definitely never got a big peak and seem to be levelling off nicely, and they’ve been ahead of the game in terms of vaccination,” Prof Spector added.
“They are several weeks ahead of the rest of the country and it gives us an idea that this is providing protection against the delta variant.”
King’s estimates that the current risk of suffering a symptomatic Covid infection is one in 2,093 in the unvaccinated, one in 5,508 after a single dose and one in 16,101 after two doses.
Latest surveillance data shows that case rates continue to be highest in those aged 20 to 29, with a case rate of 195.9 per 100,000 population.
The lowest case rates were in those aged 80 and above, with a rate of 9.6 per 100,000 population.
Estimated Covid rate among age groups (Zoe Covid Study/Kings)
The latest surveillance report from Public Health England shows that case rates per 100,000 have continued to increase in all regions and age-groups. According to the government dashboard, cases have risen around 30 per cent in a week, and admissions by 41 per cent, but deaths are remaining stable at around nine per day.
However, seroprevalence data (the level of a pathogen in the population measured by blood samples) indicates around 79.1 per cent of over-17s in England now have antibodies to coronavirus either from infection or vaccination.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the chance of getting Covid after being vaccinated drops sharply 21 days after a first dose.
Out of a sample of 297,493 people vaccinated, 1,477 (0.5 per cent) were subsequently found to have a new positive infection of Covid-19.
From a sample of 210,918 adults who had received both doses of vaccine, just 0.1 per cent were subsequently found to have a new positive infection.
Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director of Public Health England, said: “We now know that two doses of either vaccine offers very high levels of protection against hospitalisation from all variants, including delta, and so it is important to take up the offer of the vaccine to protect yourself and others.”